Pelosi

By delaying House Democratic leadership elections until after Thanksgiving, Nancy Pelosi has created speculation about whether she is going to stay atop the caucus. On top of that, the delay raises the question of whether or not Democrats will retake control of the House. Pelosi’s move means one of two things: Either she’s getting out of leadership and wants to give someone else a chance to organize a movement against Minority Whip Steny Hoyer; or she’s simply buying time to consider her future if Democrats fall short of the majority. Either way, her surprising proposal is creating just the type of speculation about her future that Pelosi hates.

Pelosi and her associates are extremely secretive about what she might do if Democrats fail to win the House. All they will say is that Pelosi has stated that she won’t retire no matter what happens on Nov. 6. “It’s really up to my caucus who will lead the party next and my family as well, if they care to after all this time,” Pelosi recently stated. Yet some Democratic insiders see the potential for a December vote for the party’s leadership as aimed at Hoyer. Additional time between Election Day and leadership elections could give Pelosi time to run someone against Hoyer. This would basically mean picking her successor.

One veteran in Pelosi’s circle put it this way: she’s either trying to figure out who will fill the leadership table below her, or is looking to figure out who will succeed her. But such a move carries risks, and it’s not at all clear whether even Pelosi can make this happen as a lame-duck leader. In such cases, the leader giving up his or her post very quickly loses the ability to steer events in the direction they want. If Pelosi were truly staying put, delaying the election would be a perplexing strategy. Normally, incumbent leaders look to schedule leadership races as close to Election Day as possible, a move that prevents potential challengers from having time to organize a run for the top leadership job.

But Pelosi aides deny that is her intention. They maintain that members have complained about being lobbied by three Democrats campaigning for the vice-chairman post of the Democratic Caucus, and add that Pelosi is not angling to keep Hoyer from winning the post he has wanted for so long.